A Free Lesson - Learned the hard way
November 18th 2007 10:44
Punters Daily followers made a 12 per cent profit over the Friday and Saturday that tips were given. Masked Assassin was beaten a head, that would have turned a good result into an excellent result.
Still, I cannot be satisfied with that. There was something done incorrectly. On Melbourne Cup Day, I can honestly say I did my form properly and unfortunately the conclusions reached did not match the actual results but I was happier with the way things went that day than Saturday.
You see, on Saturday I made a horrendous error. I write this post, not only to warn punters of the dangers of getting into this habit, but also to give myself a public uppercut for my stupidity.
It all started Thursday when the acceptances came out. I had a look as always. I saw Masked Assassin had accepted for his target race, the Sandown Guineas. I immediately put a ring around his name. He would be a bet for the day. I went to the Sandown Classic and noted that Zipping only had to be half fit to beat the field he was entered against.
Then I saw the Kevin Heffernan Stakes entries. Immediately, I saw the name Gibraltar Campion. I have backed Gibraltar Campion at all of her career starts with success in her first two starts. Recently she has been racing okay without winning. She was entered into a weight for age race and would be accorded some weight relief against a lost of horses that she had an ability advantage over. I even sent an email amongst some fellow punters whose opinion I respect floating up her chances.
The emails came back all against my thoughts. I went home on the Thursday night and did my form for the race still fully intending to back Gibraltar Campion at what I thought to be the luxurious odds of 9 to 1.
I went through Let Go Thommo's form. I couldn't ignore the fact that he had ran very well against Miss Andretti and Gold Edition, Australia's two best sprinters. He had ran pretty well on Oaks Day behind the very talented Miss Judgement. On the Thursday afternoon, I even made the remark that Let Go Thommo had only won one of his twelve goes in Victoria. But on the other side of the coin he had won a group one race, the Goodwood handicap and the others hadn't. The weights would suit him. I changed my mind. You guessed it Gibraltar Campion won well. Let Go Thommo ran nearly last. I ignored the most important fact, Let Go Thommo is a pretender.
The point of the story is three major things, stick with winners. 2 from 6 is better than one from twelve. The second is to listen to your gut feeling, sometimes it is more effective than pure form study, the best way is to investigate your gut feeling and decide if it is a realistic chance. Thirdly and most importantly, NEVER, EVER CHANGE YOUR MIND!!! No matter what others say, your opinion is just as good as anybody else's. Remember the comments I made on the intro to the site a month ago. This site is only MY opinions on punting, by all means read (please, please,please do!) but if you don't agree bet on something else, but don't make the same mistake I made and change your mind. It only leads to frustration, and it costs you money. Not so much in losses, but changing your mind will, over time stop you from making as much profit as you should.
Heed the lesson, it was one that took it's time to sink in. I have changed my mind before and must admit that it has always been with negative results. I am using this post as a postive tool to improve my own punting and say I will never change my mind again. There it is, on the record, and I must stick to it.
Still, I cannot be satisfied with that. There was something done incorrectly. On Melbourne Cup Day, I can honestly say I did my form properly and unfortunately the conclusions reached did not match the actual results but I was happier with the way things went that day than Saturday.
You see, on Saturday I made a horrendous error. I write this post, not only to warn punters of the dangers of getting into this habit, but also to give myself a public uppercut for my stupidity.
It all started Thursday when the acceptances came out. I had a look as always. I saw Masked Assassin had accepted for his target race, the Sandown Guineas. I immediately put a ring around his name. He would be a bet for the day. I went to the Sandown Classic and noted that Zipping only had to be half fit to beat the field he was entered against.
Then I saw the Kevin Heffernan Stakes entries. Immediately, I saw the name Gibraltar Campion. I have backed Gibraltar Campion at all of her career starts with success in her first two starts. Recently she has been racing okay without winning. She was entered into a weight for age race and would be accorded some weight relief against a lost of horses that she had an ability advantage over. I even sent an email amongst some fellow punters whose opinion I respect floating up her chances.
The emails came back all against my thoughts. I went home on the Thursday night and did my form for the race still fully intending to back Gibraltar Campion at what I thought to be the luxurious odds of 9 to 1.
The point of the story is three major things, stick with winners. 2 from 6 is better than one from twelve. The second is to listen to your gut feeling, sometimes it is more effective than pure form study, the best way is to investigate your gut feeling and decide if it is a realistic chance. Thirdly and most importantly, NEVER, EVER CHANGE YOUR MIND!!! No matter what others say, your opinion is just as good as anybody else's. Remember the comments I made on the intro to the site a month ago. This site is only MY opinions on punting, by all means read (please, please,please do!) but if you don't agree bet on something else, but don't make the same mistake I made and change your mind. It only leads to frustration, and it costs you money. Not so much in losses, but changing your mind will, over time stop you from making as much profit as you should.
Heed the lesson, it was one that took it's time to sink in. I have changed my mind before and must admit that it has always been with negative results. I am using this post as a postive tool to improve my own punting and say I will never change my mind again. There it is, on the record, and I must stick to it.
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