Bendigo Cup Day
November 13th 2007 04:18
There is not a lot of quality here but there are some winners to be found.
I think we can kick off the day with a bit of a shorty in the first. Born Bold from the Hayes yard fits the bill, she is by Exceed and Excel who is flying at the moment with his early 2 year old runners. There is a danger, Scarlet Silk from the Moody yard who is also bred to go quick being by General Nediym by Tranquil Love, a 10 time Brisbane winner at distances up to 1200m. The 900 will suit her as well but thinking the Hayes runner may be well placed.
Back Born Bold in the first but not at odds on as there is a definite danger
The second is a tough maiden. There are three chances. Coolism from the Ken Keys yard ran very well last start behind the handy Bold Moment. Bold Moment went on to run very well behind Gamble Me on Cup Day. The main handicap for her is her trainer, Ken Keys. He has far too many horses with poor winning strike rates for it to be co-incidence. Largo Lad from the Ledger stable ran a bottler on debut behind Catcorp, the concern with him is that Catcorp ran an average race next start in a Moonee Valley Class 1. That leaves Dajraan from the Hayes stable, track bias beat him last start at Werribee. It was impossible to win once you got off the fence. He gets a big opportunity to atone. Back Dajraan at 2.50 or better
The fifth sees Kioni going around, he had the last shot to bits at Werribee last start. He wobbled off the fence under pressure which allowed Barwon Express to get up on the inside to win. Barwon Express has since raced well down the straight at Flemington to frank the form. He is drawn to lead here and may take running down. If he does get leg weary, Prince Raheed may be one to run over the top of him. He resumed with a very good effort behind Specatcular Saint and Sharkbite last start. The form from that race is excellent with both of those winning over the carnival. Back them both, value will allow a profit. You may notice I have left out the undefeated Spin Queen out, she has won three in a row on wet ground against very ordinary opposition. The formlines around the horses mentioned here are far superior.
In the Bendigo Cup I think there are only two hopes, On A Jeune and Captious. On A Jeune is coming back from the Melbourne Cup distance of 3200m which is against him, as is the 58kg. Why he is a chance is that this race is a massive drop in class from the Cup. Also Andrew Payne is a fantastic trainer of stayers and looks to have improved On A Jeune, even if only a few percent. Captious looks to be the better bet, he was unsuited at weight for age in the Mackinnon last start. He had no hope and ran okay. Prior to that his form was very good. He beat Emerald Jack at the Valley first-up. Emerald Jack's next two in the Cranbourne Cup and the Waterford Mile have been excellent, he then easily won the Moe Cup in smart time with 58kg. His form at the long journey is good too. He ran a good second to Master O'Reilly on ANZAC Day this year and is placed over 3000m behind Hooker Road who is a Valley 3000m specialist. Back Captious
Race 9 is an open 1400m race. I like Tereschenko here. His run behind Kaphero at the Valley was excellent, even though he only ran tenth, he was held up the entire length of the Valley straight. He should have at least ran a place behind Spectacular Saint and then he was caught wide on Melbourne Cup day behind El Pauji. He finished just behind Emirates Stakes winner Tears I Cry. Creek Side actually beat Tears I Cry and finished ahead of Tereschenko in the same race at Flemington but meets Tereschenko 2.5 kilos worse for a 1.25 length victory. I think Tereschenko can improve enough to reverse that result. I wouldn't discount Creek Side entirely and I think is Tereschenko doesn't win that he will be the likely victor.
Back Teresechenko.
TIP SUMMARY
Race 1 1 Born Bold
Race 2 3 Dajraan
Race 5 2 Prince Raheed & 5 Kioni
Race 8 2 Captious
Race 9 6 Tereschenko
Good Punting
I think we can kick off the day with a bit of a shorty in the first. Born Bold from the Hayes yard fits the bill, she is by Exceed and Excel who is flying at the moment with his early 2 year old runners. There is a danger, Scarlet Silk from the Moody yard who is also bred to go quick being by General Nediym by Tranquil Love, a 10 time Brisbane winner at distances up to 1200m. The 900 will suit her as well but thinking the Hayes runner may be well placed.
Back Born Bold in the first but not at odds on as there is a definite danger
The second is a tough maiden. There are three chances. Coolism from the Ken Keys yard ran very well last start behind the handy Bold Moment. Bold Moment went on to run very well behind Gamble Me on Cup Day. The main handicap for her is her trainer, Ken Keys. He has far too many horses with poor winning strike rates for it to be co-incidence. Largo Lad from the Ledger stable ran a bottler on debut behind Catcorp, the concern with him is that Catcorp ran an average race next start in a Moonee Valley Class 1. That leaves Dajraan from the Hayes stable, track bias beat him last start at Werribee. It was impossible to win once you got off the fence. He gets a big opportunity to atone. Back Dajraan at 2.50 or better
The fifth sees Kioni going around, he had the last shot to bits at Werribee last start. He wobbled off the fence under pressure which allowed Barwon Express to get up on the inside to win. Barwon Express has since raced well down the straight at Flemington to frank the form. He is drawn to lead here and may take running down. If he does get leg weary, Prince Raheed may be one to run over the top of him. He resumed with a very good effort behind Specatcular Saint and Sharkbite last start. The form from that race is excellent with both of those winning over the carnival. Back them both, value will allow a profit. You may notice I have left out the undefeated Spin Queen out, she has won three in a row on wet ground against very ordinary opposition. The formlines around the horses mentioned here are far superior.
In the Bendigo Cup I think there are only two hopes, On A Jeune and Captious. On A Jeune is coming back from the Melbourne Cup distance of 3200m which is against him, as is the 58kg. Why he is a chance is that this race is a massive drop in class from the Cup. Also Andrew Payne is a fantastic trainer of stayers and looks to have improved On A Jeune, even if only a few percent. Captious looks to be the better bet, he was unsuited at weight for age in the Mackinnon last start. He had no hope and ran okay. Prior to that his form was very good. He beat Emerald Jack at the Valley first-up. Emerald Jack's next two in the Cranbourne Cup and the Waterford Mile have been excellent, he then easily won the Moe Cup in smart time with 58kg. His form at the long journey is good too. He ran a good second to Master O'Reilly on ANZAC Day this year and is placed over 3000m behind Hooker Road who is a Valley 3000m specialist. Back Captious
Race 9 is an open 1400m race. I like Tereschenko here. His run behind Kaphero at the Valley was excellent, even though he only ran tenth, he was held up the entire length of the Valley straight. He should have at least ran a place behind Spectacular Saint and then he was caught wide on Melbourne Cup day behind El Pauji. He finished just behind Emirates Stakes winner Tears I Cry. Creek Side actually beat Tears I Cry and finished ahead of Tereschenko in the same race at Flemington but meets Tereschenko 2.5 kilos worse for a 1.25 length victory. I think Tereschenko can improve enough to reverse that result. I wouldn't discount Creek Side entirely and I think is Tereschenko doesn't win that he will be the likely victor.
Back Teresechenko.
TIP SUMMARY
Race 1 1 Born Bold
Race 2 3 Dajraan
Race 5 2 Prince Raheed & 5 Kioni
Race 8 2 Captious
Race 9 6 Tereschenko
Good Punting
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