Cox Plate Preview
October 25th 2007 11:53
Cox Plate Day - Moonee Valley
Expected weather fine 29 degrees, track good and rail true. Swoopers have a chance with the rail true, they's have no hope with the rail out
If you sleep in or can't get the chores done, don't worry, you aren't missing much. The Moonee Valley 1000m with a full field is not easy to find a winner. There is no rule saying it is compulsory to bet on every race, so don't feel you have to. Sometimes there are races with more to offer from a future point of view. This is one of them. The horses of interest for later are Cargo Cult, Stickpin, Watchyerback, Tereschenko and Bond Street . Stay out of this one
Race 2 - the formline from the race that Miss Marielle won last week at Caulfield should be the dominant on here. Miss Tomma Hawk has a 2kg weight swing. The top 2 (Catalan Bay and Bonded) have been up a fair while and may have had enough. Perfect Persuasion would be disowned by her big sister Alinghi with her recent form. Lee Freedman has been placing her in races she's not good enough to win to try and get black type for her. He should put her away now and give her time to develop and head to Hobart's carnival, the races are shocking but they have group status. TIP - Back both Miss Marielle and Miss Tomma Hawk.
Race 3 - Royal Asscher jumps out as one of the better bets for the day. She ran the superstar Gold Edition to three quarters of a length last start. Gamble Me will set a speed for her to follow. Zizou ran a better race last time with 60 but effectively competes at level weights with Royal Asscher here and her form is far superior. Masked Assassin looks like he is on the Sandown Guineas trail, note with interest what he does. It may pay to be observant. TIP - Royal Asscher to win
Race 4 - One for the purists, relax and watch the 2 brilliant mares go at it. Don't bet just enjoy. I can't split them they both have a list of qualities a mile long.
Race 5 - This is the most difficult race of they day, keep your money in your pocket. Mares races are by nature very difficult. The ones that strike rich veins of form (Devil Moon for example) are forced to race in open class by the handicapper leaving the inconsistent ones to go around week after week in mares grade. The punter gets left to sort it all out. If you really have to bet back Manna Miss. She is a lovely mare with an excellent record at the Valley but has drawn wide with an inconsistent rider (Craig Williams) on board. It has been admitted by the stable that Williams is prone to the odd slaughter or two.
Race 6 - The main formline here will centre around the Caulfield Guineas. Although Weekend Hussler belted them, the Derby picture became a bit clearer. Barbaricus was given no hope by Steven Arnold last time and got home very well. Marching is as honest as the day is long but lacks that speckle of brilliance to put paid to a field of good class 3yos. Davcon is very evenly matched with Barbaricus but has a tough draw (13) with the short run to the first turn. Ribeiro saw plenty of the outside fence at Caulfield last time out but battled on okay. He is a dour type and needs the pace right on and he may be better suited at Flemington. Kibbutz was impressive last time in Adelaide and must be respected. Down Under Boy had every chance last start behind Pillar of Hercules. TIP - Barbaricus to win Ribeiro to place
Race 7 - The Moonee Valley Cup is a very weak one this year. a prime example of the poor standard of the field is Schumpeter. Two starts back he was beaten in the Manangatang Cup for goodness sake!! Hofmeister was ordinary last week. Dolphin Jo is racing okay but has never placed at the Valley. Lazer Sharp is not at his best. I have a distance doubt on Dracs Back, he hasn't won past 1800m. Red Lord was lucky to beat the ambulance last start at Flemington....I am ashamed to admit I backed him. He went around at equal favourite so I think quite a few of you did too! There are only two chances, the big-hearted (but classy) Gallic and Reggie who ran nicely behind Master O'Reilly in the Winning Edge. I'm just not sure she gets enough weight off Gallic. TIP - Gallic to win
Race 8 - THE COX PLATE
I am prepared to forgive El Segundo's last one. His Flemington form is not as good as other tracks, he relishes the give in the StrathAyr. Zipping is unbeaten at the Valley and has a top record (6 runs for 4 wins) at 2000m, weight for age is the worry though. Haradasun is racing very well without luck. In the Feehan Darren Beadman was asleep at the wheel at the 600 when Nolen on El Segundo made his move, he got beaten a nose which can be attributed to pilot error. Oliver was stuck three deep at Flemington and he fought on well.
Efficient has the blinkers on, they will sharpen him up , but I think the 2000m will be a touch short him still. I would have preferred him in the Caulfield Cup but Lloyd is not known for conforming with the norms of placement. Magic Cape got beaen by Mandela 2 starts back, Mandela wouldn't get a job as a clerk of the course's pony in this field. Divine Madonna has a huge finish but will the Valley straight be long enough against the cream? In her favour she drops in weight back to the weight for age scale after carrying big weights in handicaps. Miss Finland is going well, she may be ridden a little closer from gate one, she has done nothing wrong. Williams gave control of the race to Michael Rodd on Maldivian last start and her chances went with it. Devil Moon will be subject to enormous pressure as likely leader, she can definitely win and if she does it will be on her merits alone. Eskimo Queen was last seen face-planting into the Caulfield turf last week, the trauma involved there can't have been good for her and am prepared to let her run against me. Lad of the Manor and Niconero have been done no favours by connections. They should be running in the Crystal mile under handicap conditions. I would have backed Lad of the Manor had he ran in that. TIPS - Haradasun to step up to the heavyweight division, Miss Finland, El Segundo and Devil Moon to fill the multiples.
Race 9 Crystal Mile. Growl was pretty good this time last year. Watch and see what he does. Orange County struggled at a mile last time. Sonic Quest had every possible chance. I like the horse but am not convinced he will get a mile. Emerald Jack won the Cranbourne Cup in a driving finish last time, back 400m here which is not in his favour. Mind Your Head is a complete lunatic but he has a ton of ability, he may be a blow out chance. Pinnacles won nicley last time at Caulfield but the compressed weight scale doesn't help him. Flash Trick was very unlucky last time out. He was the victim of a horrible ride. The racing pattern at Flemington was clearly to be out wide in the straight yet the rider (Danny Drereton) kept taking him to inside runs. A man of his experience should know better. He has been given the boot for Vlad Duric. With decent luck, he can win. TIP Flash Trick each way.
Race 10 - Another very difficult race, after a long hard day (hopefully a winning one) head to the bar for a hard earned Carlton Draught.
Good Punting
Expected weather fine 29 degrees, track good and rail true. Swoopers have a chance with the rail true, they's have no hope with the rail out
If you sleep in or can't get the chores done, don't worry, you aren't missing much. The Moonee Valley 1000m with a full field is not easy to find a winner. There is no rule saying it is compulsory to bet on every race, so don't feel you have to. Sometimes there are races with more to offer from a future point of view. This is one of them. The horses of interest for later are Cargo Cult, Stickpin, Watchyerback, Tereschenko and Bond Street . Stay out of this one
Race 2 - the formline from the race that Miss Marielle won last week at Caulfield should be the dominant on here. Miss Tomma Hawk has a 2kg weight swing. The top 2 (Catalan Bay and Bonded) have been up a fair while and may have had enough. Perfect Persuasion would be disowned by her big sister Alinghi with her recent form. Lee Freedman has been placing her in races she's not good enough to win to try and get black type for her. He should put her away now and give her time to develop and head to Hobart's carnival, the races are shocking but they have group status. TIP - Back both Miss Marielle and Miss Tomma Hawk.
Race 3 - Royal Asscher jumps out as one of the better bets for the day. She ran the superstar Gold Edition to three quarters of a length last start. Gamble Me will set a speed for her to follow. Zizou ran a better race last time with 60 but effectively competes at level weights with Royal Asscher here and her form is far superior. Masked Assassin looks like he is on the Sandown Guineas trail, note with interest what he does. It may pay to be observant. TIP - Royal Asscher to win
Race 4 - One for the purists, relax and watch the 2 brilliant mares go at it. Don't bet just enjoy. I can't split them they both have a list of qualities a mile long.
Race 5 - This is the most difficult race of they day, keep your money in your pocket. Mares races are by nature very difficult. The ones that strike rich veins of form (Devil Moon for example) are forced to race in open class by the handicapper leaving the inconsistent ones to go around week after week in mares grade. The punter gets left to sort it all out. If you really have to bet back Manna Miss. She is a lovely mare with an excellent record at the Valley but has drawn wide with an inconsistent rider (Craig Williams) on board. It has been admitted by the stable that Williams is prone to the odd slaughter or two.
Race 6 - The main formline here will centre around the Caulfield Guineas. Although Weekend Hussler belted them, the Derby picture became a bit clearer. Barbaricus was given no hope by Steven Arnold last time and got home very well. Marching is as honest as the day is long but lacks that speckle of brilliance to put paid to a field of good class 3yos. Davcon is very evenly matched with Barbaricus but has a tough draw (13) with the short run to the first turn. Ribeiro saw plenty of the outside fence at Caulfield last time out but battled on okay. He is a dour type and needs the pace right on and he may be better suited at Flemington. Kibbutz was impressive last time in Adelaide and must be respected. Down Under Boy had every chance last start behind Pillar of Hercules. TIP - Barbaricus to win Ribeiro to place
Race 7 - The Moonee Valley Cup is a very weak one this year. a prime example of the poor standard of the field is Schumpeter. Two starts back he was beaten in the Manangatang Cup for goodness sake!! Hofmeister was ordinary last week. Dolphin Jo is racing okay but has never placed at the Valley. Lazer Sharp is not at his best. I have a distance doubt on Dracs Back, he hasn't won past 1800m. Red Lord was lucky to beat the ambulance last start at Flemington....I am ashamed to admit I backed him. He went around at equal favourite so I think quite a few of you did too! There are only two chances, the big-hearted (but classy) Gallic and Reggie who ran nicely behind Master O'Reilly in the Winning Edge. I'm just not sure she gets enough weight off Gallic. TIP - Gallic to win
Race 8 - THE COX PLATE
I am prepared to forgive El Segundo's last one. His Flemington form is not as good as other tracks, he relishes the give in the StrathAyr. Zipping is unbeaten at the Valley and has a top record (6 runs for 4 wins) at 2000m, weight for age is the worry though. Haradasun is racing very well without luck. In the Feehan Darren Beadman was asleep at the wheel at the 600 when Nolen on El Segundo made his move, he got beaten a nose which can be attributed to pilot error. Oliver was stuck three deep at Flemington and he fought on well.
Efficient has the blinkers on, they will sharpen him up , but I think the 2000m will be a touch short him still. I would have preferred him in the Caulfield Cup but Lloyd is not known for conforming with the norms of placement. Magic Cape got beaen by Mandela 2 starts back, Mandela wouldn't get a job as a clerk of the course's pony in this field. Divine Madonna has a huge finish but will the Valley straight be long enough against the cream? In her favour she drops in weight back to the weight for age scale after carrying big weights in handicaps. Miss Finland is going well, she may be ridden a little closer from gate one, she has done nothing wrong. Williams gave control of the race to Michael Rodd on Maldivian last start and her chances went with it. Devil Moon will be subject to enormous pressure as likely leader, she can definitely win and if she does it will be on her merits alone. Eskimo Queen was last seen face-planting into the Caulfield turf last week, the trauma involved there can't have been good for her and am prepared to let her run against me. Lad of the Manor and Niconero have been done no favours by connections. They should be running in the Crystal mile under handicap conditions. I would have backed Lad of the Manor had he ran in that. TIPS - Haradasun to step up to the heavyweight division, Miss Finland, El Segundo and Devil Moon to fill the multiples.
Race 9 Crystal Mile. Growl was pretty good this time last year. Watch and see what he does. Orange County struggled at a mile last time. Sonic Quest had every possible chance. I like the horse but am not convinced he will get a mile. Emerald Jack won the Cranbourne Cup in a driving finish last time, back 400m here which is not in his favour. Mind Your Head is a complete lunatic but he has a ton of ability, he may be a blow out chance. Pinnacles won nicley last time at Caulfield but the compressed weight scale doesn't help him. Flash Trick was very unlucky last time out. He was the victim of a horrible ride. The racing pattern at Flemington was clearly to be out wide in the straight yet the rider (Danny Drereton) kept taking him to inside runs. A man of his experience should know better. He has been given the boot for Vlad Duric. With decent luck, he can win. TIP Flash Trick each way.
Race 10 - Another very difficult race, after a long hard day (hopefully a winning one) head to the bar for a hard earned Carlton Draught.
Good Punting
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Comment by Dexter
Comment by ThreeWide
I know that in some cases I may be stating the obvious particularly with Royal Asscher but sometimes there just an obvious standout on the card. I think there is some value there. Gallic is currently 12 dollars on TAB Sportsbet