Emirates Stakes Day review
November 10th 2007 07:47
After another profitable day today, we can proudly say that a profit has been eked out over the Carnival. It was only a small one (6.7%) but a profit nonetheless. As mentioned in an earlier post, Cup week is a very difficult week on the punt and anyone who makes a profit over the four days should be very happy. After the Cup Day debacle of going zero for seven, strong results in the second half of the Carnival helped boost the bottom line. The reason for the small profit was the slightly low win strike rate (18%). Usually my win strike rate is about 25% or one in four. There were a couple of frustrating seconds, The Fuzz getting beaten after heading Sculptor in the Saab Quality and Sirmione running over the top of Princess Coup in the Mackinnon Stakes were enormously annoying.
We kicked off Emirates Stakes Day with Spectacular Saint doing the right thing for us and winning very impressively at the juicy odds of $7. He did all of the work in front and had enough in store to hold off Mi Casa Su Casa who appreciated the bigger track at Flemington, for some reason he has been doing a lot of racing at the Valley which has not been to his advantage. Barwon Express ran well for fourth, he has a future and Soreadyforspring found the 1100m a bit short but showed enough to suggest he has ability.
The second race was a horrible affair, Partiva sat three deep and won pretty easily which says a lot about the standard of mares that were engaged in that race.
Extend never settled at any stage but still had too much class for his rivals in the third. Baughurst got home very well and franked the Werribee Cup form, the rest struggled.
El Mandon turned in an excellent performance, he sat four wide over the Flemington 1400 metre course and beat all but Distant Melody who snuck up on the fence. All of the others went wide to perceived better ground but James Winks on Distant Melody stuck to his guns. Full credit must go to Winks for showing a ton of initiative instead of being a sheep and following everyone else to the outside. That comes from confidence, Winks is riding well and has a lot of faith in his ability and rightly so, the results speak for themselves. Flea Flicker ran on well again, he may be nearing win in the next couple of weeks as the quality of fields drops away.
Miss Andretti won again but full credit to Gold Edition who made the best sprinter in the world earn her money in this match race.
The Emirates is the same as the Mackinnon, a punter must just shake his head and move on. This horse (as all that backed him last start know) couldn't even win a restricted event on Cup Day yet beat a field with 5 group one winners in it. Just put it down to fluke and leave it at that. Don't sack Weekend Hussler, he is still the next big thing in Australian racing, nothng went his way today and was probably a tired horse, watch out for him in the sprinting triple crown in the autmum
Translate ranked with Manna Miss as the worst run of the carnival, she was horrible. Hidden Strings won at any old odds, she was left alone in front and just had enough. Danevade and Sovereign Miss ran super races, especially Sovereign Miss who has put two very good races in at this carnival. Her trainer, David Brideoake must be thrilled with her.
Cancanelle ran on very strongly, she is nearing a win, she has been up a while but racing very well, quite often in races she can't win. If Robbie Griffiths can manage to place her properly she can win soon.
Race 8 - the Queen Elizabeth Stakes - showed how much damage the EI crisis has done to racing. This bunch of chaff-burners went around in a group 2 race. Bring back the Cup Hurdle for horses like these!
I was all Carnival-ed out by race nine and took no interest whatsoever. Hopefully you, like I had a good carnival. Hopefully you keep following the tips given on this site. The Cup carnival is the hardest time of the year to win. It only gets easier from here (I hope!)
HORSES TO FOLLOW
SOREADYFORSPRING, FLEA FLICKER
We kicked off Emirates Stakes Day with Spectacular Saint doing the right thing for us and winning very impressively at the juicy odds of $7. He did all of the work in front and had enough in store to hold off Mi Casa Su Casa who appreciated the bigger track at Flemington, for some reason he has been doing a lot of racing at the Valley which has not been to his advantage. Barwon Express ran well for fourth, he has a future and Soreadyforspring found the 1100m a bit short but showed enough to suggest he has ability.
The second race was a horrible affair, Partiva sat three deep and won pretty easily which says a lot about the standard of mares that were engaged in that race.
Extend never settled at any stage but still had too much class for his rivals in the third. Baughurst got home very well and franked the Werribee Cup form, the rest struggled.
El Mandon turned in an excellent performance, he sat four wide over the Flemington 1400 metre course and beat all but Distant Melody who snuck up on the fence. All of the others went wide to perceived better ground but James Winks on Distant Melody stuck to his guns. Full credit must go to Winks for showing a ton of initiative instead of being a sheep and following everyone else to the outside. That comes from confidence, Winks is riding well and has a lot of faith in his ability and rightly so, the results speak for themselves. Flea Flicker ran on well again, he may be nearing win in the next couple of weeks as the quality of fields drops away.
Miss Andretti won again but full credit to Gold Edition who made the best sprinter in the world earn her money in this match race.
The Emirates is the same as the Mackinnon, a punter must just shake his head and move on. This horse (as all that backed him last start know) couldn't even win a restricted event on Cup Day yet beat a field with 5 group one winners in it. Just put it down to fluke and leave it at that. Don't sack Weekend Hussler, he is still the next big thing in Australian racing, nothng went his way today and was probably a tired horse, watch out for him in the sprinting triple crown in the autmum
Translate ranked with Manna Miss as the worst run of the carnival, she was horrible. Hidden Strings won at any old odds, she was left alone in front and just had enough. Danevade and Sovereign Miss ran super races, especially Sovereign Miss who has put two very good races in at this carnival. Her trainer, David Brideoake must be thrilled with her.
Cancanelle ran on very strongly, she is nearing a win, she has been up a while but racing very well, quite often in races she can't win. If Robbie Griffiths can manage to place her properly she can win soon.
Race 8 - the Queen Elizabeth Stakes - showed how much damage the EI crisis has done to racing. This bunch of chaff-burners went around in a group 2 race. Bring back the Cup Hurdle for horses like these!
I was all Carnival-ed out by race nine and took no interest whatsoever. Hopefully you, like I had a good carnival. Hopefully you keep following the tips given on this site. The Cup carnival is the hardest time of the year to win. It only gets easier from here (I hope!)
HORSES TO FOLLOW
SOREADYFORSPRING, FLEA FLICKER
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