EMIRATES STAKES DAY
November 9th 2007 01:57
Finally, the last day of the Carnival has arrived. The fields don't get any easier but once again there are winners to be had. The track should be rated good but with plenty of wear and tear which is understandable for a track which has had four meetings in a week on it.
Bear in mind that there will probably be a section of track which is better than the rest and the jockeys will all make a beeline for that section of the course. Hopefully the jockeys on my picks find it first.
The first is a tough little restricted affair over 1100m for 4 & 5 year olds. Spectacular Saint put in a very good effort wide all the way on pace and was only run down by Kaphero who had the perfect run. Message Bank was well beaten by Spectacular Saint at the Valley and he ran well on Oaks Day. Before that he accounted for Sharkbite who won impressively down the straight on Cup Day. His formlines are very good for this and he has drawn the middle of the course and is a strong chance. The main dangers are Immortality who raced well in Adelaide last prep and Fabric of Dreams who has resumed with two impressive wins this time in. TIP - back Spectacular Saint
The second is a race of very low grade. Leave this one alone
The Werribee Cup formline dominates race 3. I think Extend can reverse the result from that meeting with Baughurst, he meets him 2.5 kilos better for a length defeat. Prior to that he ran a good fourth in the race won by The Wolverine at Caulfield. That form stacked up very well on Oaks Day when Gallopin beat The Wolverine. Baughurst is the main danger, he is a very honest galloper and should run well again. TIP - back Extend each way
In race 4 we see El Mandon return after his very good performance on Cox Plate Day behind Royal Asscher. He beat Masked Assassin comfortably who ran very well against Weekend Hussler on Derby Day. He also beat Gamble Me who won on Oaks Day, his form is stacking up well and should be hard to beat, the main concern is the fact that he has drawn gate 13 at the 1400m. Teskara ran okay behind Zacroona in the Carbine Club stakes last start and may find this event more to his liking and appeals as a danger TIP - El Mandon
Miss Andretti should account for Gold Edition in The Age Classic with daylight to third.
The Emirates is more difficult than it looks. On face value it looks like Weekend Hussler should bolt in but this is his biggest test by far, he has drawn a touch wide against some seasoned gallopers. Having said that, if things go his way he will win. I think the Cox Plate runners hold the key to rolling him. Wonderful World ran a top race in the Cox Plate, beating all but El Segundo. I don't see too much speed here and he may be able to sneak across and find a good spot from gate 10. Niconero and Lad of the Manor were poorly placed by connections in the Cox Plate and are much better suited here. Both ran very well behind Divine Madonna in the Toorak Handicap. It is interesting that Lad of the Manor has not carried such a low weight since 2004, he has drawn well and may be able to pull a big one out.
Not prepared to tip against Weekend Hussler here but wouldn't be surprised if he was beaten by one of the Cox Plate horses. The rest would surprise me.
Race 7 is for the mares over 2000m. Translate pushed the great mare Divine Madonna all the way here last week. The conditions suited Divine Madonna, Translate's effort was terrific. She can improve enough to win here. Anamato has been mixing distances since returning from America, she must be getting confused the poor thing. She ran like a tired horse in the Caulfield Cup, gate 16 with top weight is a huge ask. Brom Felinity and Red for Lou, along with Sovereign Miss ran well behind Divine Madonna as well but were all beaten by Translate and she meets them at the same, or better, weight scale. TIP - Back Translate
The Queen Elizabeth Stakes is another advertisement for jumps racing being allowed on the program at the Spring Carnival. So many of these are out of form and some of these will have the cheek to back up in the Sandown Classic. There are only two improving, Desert Master and Completion. Desert Master ran another good race in the Saab Quality behind The Fuzz and Sculptor, previously he had ran very well in the Geelong Cup behind The Fuzz and Zavite. His form is excellent for this race and still seems to be on the up. Completion looked unlucky on Cup Day behind Red Lord over 2800m, this is a step up in class here and he actually goes up a half kilo in weight. TIP - Desert Master each way.
The last is a raffle, have a drink and unwind
Good Punting
TIP SUMMARY
Race 1 3 Spectacular Saint
Race 3 7 Extend (Each way)
Race 4 1 El Mandon
Race 7 7 Translate
Race 8 6 Desert Master
Bear in mind that there will probably be a section of track which is better than the rest and the jockeys will all make a beeline for that section of the course. Hopefully the jockeys on my picks find it first.
The first is a tough little restricted affair over 1100m for 4 & 5 year olds. Spectacular Saint put in a very good effort wide all the way on pace and was only run down by Kaphero who had the perfect run. Message Bank was well beaten by Spectacular Saint at the Valley and he ran well on Oaks Day. Before that he accounted for Sharkbite who won impressively down the straight on Cup Day. His formlines are very good for this and he has drawn the middle of the course and is a strong chance. The main dangers are Immortality who raced well in Adelaide last prep and Fabric of Dreams who has resumed with two impressive wins this time in. TIP - back Spectacular Saint
The second is a race of very low grade. Leave this one alone
The Werribee Cup formline dominates race 3. I think Extend can reverse the result from that meeting with Baughurst, he meets him 2.5 kilos better for a length defeat. Prior to that he ran a good fourth in the race won by The Wolverine at Caulfield. That form stacked up very well on Oaks Day when Gallopin beat The Wolverine. Baughurst is the main danger, he is a very honest galloper and should run well again. TIP - back Extend each way
In race 4 we see El Mandon return after his very good performance on Cox Plate Day behind Royal Asscher. He beat Masked Assassin comfortably who ran very well against Weekend Hussler on Derby Day. He also beat Gamble Me who won on Oaks Day, his form is stacking up well and should be hard to beat, the main concern is the fact that he has drawn gate 13 at the 1400m. Teskara ran okay behind Zacroona in the Carbine Club stakes last start and may find this event more to his liking and appeals as a danger TIP - El Mandon
Miss Andretti should account for Gold Edition in The Age Classic with daylight to third.
The Emirates is more difficult than it looks. On face value it looks like Weekend Hussler should bolt in but this is his biggest test by far, he has drawn a touch wide against some seasoned gallopers. Having said that, if things go his way he will win. I think the Cox Plate runners hold the key to rolling him. Wonderful World ran a top race in the Cox Plate, beating all but El Segundo. I don't see too much speed here and he may be able to sneak across and find a good spot from gate 10. Niconero and Lad of the Manor were poorly placed by connections in the Cox Plate and are much better suited here. Both ran very well behind Divine Madonna in the Toorak Handicap. It is interesting that Lad of the Manor has not carried such a low weight since 2004, he has drawn well and may be able to pull a big one out.
Not prepared to tip against Weekend Hussler here but wouldn't be surprised if he was beaten by one of the Cox Plate horses. The rest would surprise me.
Race 7 is for the mares over 2000m. Translate pushed the great mare Divine Madonna all the way here last week. The conditions suited Divine Madonna, Translate's effort was terrific. She can improve enough to win here. Anamato has been mixing distances since returning from America, she must be getting confused the poor thing. She ran like a tired horse in the Caulfield Cup, gate 16 with top weight is a huge ask. Brom Felinity and Red for Lou, along with Sovereign Miss ran well behind Divine Madonna as well but were all beaten by Translate and she meets them at the same, or better, weight scale. TIP - Back Translate
The Queen Elizabeth Stakes is another advertisement for jumps racing being allowed on the program at the Spring Carnival. So many of these are out of form and some of these will have the cheek to back up in the Sandown Classic. There are only two improving, Desert Master and Completion. Desert Master ran another good race in the Saab Quality behind The Fuzz and Sculptor, previously he had ran very well in the Geelong Cup behind The Fuzz and Zavite. His form is excellent for this race and still seems to be on the up. Completion looked unlucky on Cup Day behind Red Lord over 2800m, this is a step up in class here and he actually goes up a half kilo in weight. TIP - Desert Master each way.
The last is a raffle, have a drink and unwind
Good Punting
TIP SUMMARY
Race 1 3 Spectacular Saint
Race 3 7 Extend (Each way)
Race 4 1 El Mandon
Race 7 7 Translate
Race 8 6 Desert Master
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