MELBOURNE CUP DAY 2007
November 4th 2007 12:26
There has been heavy rain in Melbourne from Saturday night and right through Sunday, over 45 mls (almost 2 inches) was recorded in some parts of Melbourne, nearly 40mm in Melbourne itself. There are still a few showers to come before raceday so the track will be definitely rain affected, probably dead at best. Nonetheless there are winners to be found.
The first is a 2yo race. Normally I don't advocate betting in 2yo races when the track has been rain affected. In this race, we see another Shiek owned 2yo, the filly Viennesse. She is a full sister to the Oakleigh Plate winner Snitzel who handled wet tracks with aplomb. Her dam Snippets' Lass had four of her six wins on tracks rated slow or worse. Viennesse tuned up for this with two trial wins, she is drawn well in gate nine to go to either side of the course. Viennesse's stable mate Cinnamon Bells may loom as the danger, she is a full sister to the very good filly Catechuchu, she has won a trial easily also. Hips Don't Lie won on debut in quick time in Adelaide and must be respected as does Marveen who was beaten in a photo on debut by Woppitt and may improve from that outing. TIP - back Viennesse.
Race 2 is a mares race where most of these show very little promise, it really is a shame that some races on the card are of a very ordinary standard. Manna Miss has a distinct class advantage over these. Three of her four wins have been on rain-affected ground. She ran up backsides at a crucial stage at the Valley last start and lost all momentum. She has an ordinary draw in gate 14 but that is offset by the fact that she has 57.5 on a 54 minimum, she doesn't have too give too much weight away. Her main rivals are Just Curious from the Freedman camp, she won fairly easily last start at Geelong. Illinois Girl is also a threat, she has won three from her eight starts, including an easy win at Warrnambool last start, she is one of the few with any scope to improve, the other is Keepthedreamalive she turned in a nice staynig campaign last time in and may produce a run fresh. TIP - back Manna Miss
The Lavazza Long Black is a shocking race, punters should go and have a coffee while it is being run. The chances are Bay Story, Southern Courage, Bling Bling, Completion, Satinspin, Vicello and Chiefcomingfirst. This is not one for me to be betting on.
The fourth is a pretty good Listed race for mares. At the Flemington 1400m start, anything outside gate six is a significant disadvantage. Immediately those drawn wide have to cover extra ground as the long sweeping Flemington bend commences immediately after the start. It is very difficult to bet with confidence from this start. Blessed Sue carried 61 last start and drops to 55 here under the set weights and penalties format, she has had three starts for two wins at 1400m and has drawn well. 28 starts for 15 wins says she is a high class animal, the only thing that stops me from saying she can win is the fact that she has no wet form. She has a second on a dead track, that was 2 starts back at Cranbourne. Apple Lode got a miracle inside run to get up and beat her. Juste Momente is consistent but has been finding it hard to win in mares grade, Reshuffles ran ok behind MIss Andretti last start and should be considered. No tip here, I want to say Blessed Sue but am concerned about the track.
Race 5 is a tough little 3 year old sprint over 1000m. I like Listen Here in this one, her last win at Caulfield was very good, getting home very hard off only a reasonable speed. Simplest got home quicker than her but they meet at the same weights difference. I think they will be the two to fight it out. Allervite and Volcada are chances to upset them. TIP - Listen Here.
Race 6 is another 1400m race, this is a reasonably strong affair. Belcentra is racing very well and got home very well last start behind Gamble Me at Caulfield, Danedina chased home Miss Marielle at Caulfield who has since won again, Pleasantsundaygirl has been very impressive in her two victories and Bulletin deserves another chance after being ridden upside down. Too many chances to give a tip here.
Race 7 is the Melbourne Cup.
TAWQEET - hopeless at Flemington, better at Caulfield last start but did nothing in the Mackinnon, will struggle with 57
BLUE MONDAY - much better at Caulfield last start and before that he wasn't disgraced the Turnbull, he goes okay on wet tracks, he meets Master O'Reilly 3kgs better and must be a chance.
BLUTIGEROO - The wet helps but he has too much weight, finished the Caulfield Cup off ok but on weights can't beat those that finished ahead of him there
GALLIC - has a ton of ticker, it is well known he can run 3200m, won the Moonee Valley Cup easily, even though he has drawn 24 he must be considered a live chance.
RAILINGS - if you have him in a sweep don't despair, he is a huge threat for last place.
EFFICIENT - not going that well, if he won it would surprise me
MAYBE BETTER - turned in a better run in the Mackinnon, drawn well, and form before he jarred up in the Caulfield Cup was handy for this. He is a chance.
TUNGSTEN STRIKE - has a good record at 3200m, proven over the trip but the times he has run are slow, he has no wet form to speak of and connections would be praying for sunshine.
ZIPPING - excellent in the Mackinnon, good in the Cox Plate before that, he drops to 54 here, although he has drawn wide he must be thought of highly.
BLACK TOM - No hope
MASTER O"REILLY - Effectively penalised 3kg for winning the Caulfield Cup, a beneficiary of Maldivian and Eskimo Queen being pulled out, it seems a bit harsh, he must be considered as a strong chance but the odds are a touch short
PURPLE MOON - stopped in his tracks in the straight in the Caulfield Cup and finished strongly but was still beaten 6.7 lengths, he will need every gram of the 3 kilo weight swing from Master O'Reilly. Oliver on helps him but am just not sure he is good enough, hopeless on wet tracks.
LAZER SHARP - taken his time to get fit this time in but his last two have been pretty good, he may have turned the corner. On the wet track he is an outside hope
ON A JUENE - not going as well as other years, not for me
SCENIC SHOT - best runs this prep have been at Flemington but has no wet form, no thanks
SARRERA - good in the MV Cup and is excellent on wet tracks, if he gets the distance might sneak a place
SCULPTOR - outstayed The Fuzz in the Saab Quality, this is a big step up in class, but will get the trip and will handle the wet, not a strong chance but not hopeless
DOLPHIN JO - I would be shocked if he won, or even ran a place.
DOURO VALLEY - good effort in the Caulfield Cup but has had 9 starts at Flemington for one placing, is a distance doubt and a class query. Going well but only a place chance
SIRMIONE - surely not twice in a row? the Cummings factor will keep his price short but is way under the odds, should be about the same price he started on Saturday
THE FUZZ - got outstayed on Saturday, the 2 miles is a big question mark, I don't think he can get the trip, especially in this class
ESKIMO QUEEN - the barrier scratching at Caulfield has harmed her chances, jumping from 2 runs at 2000 to 3200m is not easy and I don't think she can do it. Place only
PRINCESS COUP - a very good effort last start in the Mackinnon, she is racing in great form, drops to a light weight with a top Kiwi jockey on board in Noel Harris. If she gets the trip she is a massive chance
MAHLER - winning times are far too slow to be competitive here. Come back next year.
TIPS - value allows backing them all PRINCESS COUP, BLUE MONDAY, MASTER O"REILLY , GALLIC
After the Cup, the punting gets extremely difficult. Race 8 is at the unusual distance of 1800m, it has many chances. MOLOTOV, FLASH TRICK, FIRE IN THE NIGHT, ECLAIR PASSION and the up and comer MORETON BAY. No tip here
Race 9 is down the straight. I couldn't work out the different veins of form and am staying out of it.
In the last event Tears I Cry drops back from the Crystal Mile where he led at a quick pace and fought on strongly, he is a long way down in class here. He has never finished further back than second in six goes at 1400m and has an excellent record on soft ground. He is drawn perfectly in gate 5 and will roll forward into a good spot. TIP - Back Tears I Cry.
TIPS SUMMARY
Race 1 no. 12 Viennesse
Race 2 no.2 Manna Miss
Race 5 no. 8 Listen Here
Race 7 23 Princess Coup, 2 Blue Monday, 11 Master O'Reilly, 4 Gallic
Race 10 no. 1 Tears I Cry
The first is a 2yo race. Normally I don't advocate betting in 2yo races when the track has been rain affected. In this race, we see another Shiek owned 2yo, the filly Viennesse. She is a full sister to the Oakleigh Plate winner Snitzel who handled wet tracks with aplomb. Her dam Snippets' Lass had four of her six wins on tracks rated slow or worse. Viennesse tuned up for this with two trial wins, she is drawn well in gate nine to go to either side of the course. Viennesse's stable mate Cinnamon Bells may loom as the danger, she is a full sister to the very good filly Catechuchu, she has won a trial easily also. Hips Don't Lie won on debut in quick time in Adelaide and must be respected as does Marveen who was beaten in a photo on debut by Woppitt and may improve from that outing. TIP - back Viennesse.
Race 2 is a mares race where most of these show very little promise, it really is a shame that some races on the card are of a very ordinary standard. Manna Miss has a distinct class advantage over these. Three of her four wins have been on rain-affected ground. She ran up backsides at a crucial stage at the Valley last start and lost all momentum. She has an ordinary draw in gate 14 but that is offset by the fact that she has 57.5 on a 54 minimum, she doesn't have too give too much weight away. Her main rivals are Just Curious from the Freedman camp, she won fairly easily last start at Geelong. Illinois Girl is also a threat, she has won three from her eight starts, including an easy win at Warrnambool last start, she is one of the few with any scope to improve, the other is Keepthedreamalive she turned in a nice staynig campaign last time in and may produce a run fresh. TIP - back Manna Miss
The Lavazza Long Black is a shocking race, punters should go and have a coffee while it is being run. The chances are Bay Story, Southern Courage, Bling Bling, Completion, Satinspin, Vicello and Chiefcomingfirst. This is not one for me to be betting on.
The fourth is a pretty good Listed race for mares. At the Flemington 1400m start, anything outside gate six is a significant disadvantage. Immediately those drawn wide have to cover extra ground as the long sweeping Flemington bend commences immediately after the start. It is very difficult to bet with confidence from this start. Blessed Sue carried 61 last start and drops to 55 here under the set weights and penalties format, she has had three starts for two wins at 1400m and has drawn well. 28 starts for 15 wins says she is a high class animal, the only thing that stops me from saying she can win is the fact that she has no wet form. She has a second on a dead track, that was 2 starts back at Cranbourne. Apple Lode got a miracle inside run to get up and beat her. Juste Momente is consistent but has been finding it hard to win in mares grade, Reshuffles ran ok behind MIss Andretti last start and should be considered. No tip here, I want to say Blessed Sue but am concerned about the track.
Race 5 is a tough little 3 year old sprint over 1000m. I like Listen Here in this one, her last win at Caulfield was very good, getting home very hard off only a reasonable speed. Simplest got home quicker than her but they meet at the same weights difference. I think they will be the two to fight it out. Allervite and Volcada are chances to upset them. TIP - Listen Here.
Race 6 is another 1400m race, this is a reasonably strong affair. Belcentra is racing very well and got home very well last start behind Gamble Me at Caulfield, Danedina chased home Miss Marielle at Caulfield who has since won again, Pleasantsundaygirl has been very impressive in her two victories and Bulletin deserves another chance after being ridden upside down. Too many chances to give a tip here.
Race 7 is the Melbourne Cup.
TAWQEET - hopeless at Flemington, better at Caulfield last start but did nothing in the Mackinnon, will struggle with 57
BLUE MONDAY - much better at Caulfield last start and before that he wasn't disgraced the Turnbull, he goes okay on wet tracks, he meets Master O'Reilly 3kgs better and must be a chance.
BLUTIGEROO - The wet helps but he has too much weight, finished the Caulfield Cup off ok but on weights can't beat those that finished ahead of him there
GALLIC - has a ton of ticker, it is well known he can run 3200m, won the Moonee Valley Cup easily, even though he has drawn 24 he must be considered a live chance.
RAILINGS - if you have him in a sweep don't despair, he is a huge threat for last place.
EFFICIENT - not going that well, if he won it would surprise me
MAYBE BETTER - turned in a better run in the Mackinnon, drawn well, and form before he jarred up in the Caulfield Cup was handy for this. He is a chance.
TUNGSTEN STRIKE - has a good record at 3200m, proven over the trip but the times he has run are slow, he has no wet form to speak of and connections would be praying for sunshine.
ZIPPING - excellent in the Mackinnon, good in the Cox Plate before that, he drops to 54 here, although he has drawn wide he must be thought of highly.
BLACK TOM - No hope
MASTER O"REILLY - Effectively penalised 3kg for winning the Caulfield Cup, a beneficiary of Maldivian and Eskimo Queen being pulled out, it seems a bit harsh, he must be considered as a strong chance but the odds are a touch short
PURPLE MOON - stopped in his tracks in the straight in the Caulfield Cup and finished strongly but was still beaten 6.7 lengths, he will need every gram of the 3 kilo weight swing from Master O'Reilly. Oliver on helps him but am just not sure he is good enough, hopeless on wet tracks.
LAZER SHARP - taken his time to get fit this time in but his last two have been pretty good, he may have turned the corner. On the wet track he is an outside hope
ON A JUENE - not going as well as other years, not for me
SCENIC SHOT - best runs this prep have been at Flemington but has no wet form, no thanks
SARRERA - good in the MV Cup and is excellent on wet tracks, if he gets the distance might sneak a place
SCULPTOR - outstayed The Fuzz in the Saab Quality, this is a big step up in class, but will get the trip and will handle the wet, not a strong chance but not hopeless
DOLPHIN JO - I would be shocked if he won, or even ran a place.
DOURO VALLEY - good effort in the Caulfield Cup but has had 9 starts at Flemington for one placing, is a distance doubt and a class query. Going well but only a place chance
SIRMIONE - surely not twice in a row? the Cummings factor will keep his price short but is way under the odds, should be about the same price he started on Saturday
THE FUZZ - got outstayed on Saturday, the 2 miles is a big question mark, I don't think he can get the trip, especially in this class
ESKIMO QUEEN - the barrier scratching at Caulfield has harmed her chances, jumping from 2 runs at 2000 to 3200m is not easy and I don't think she can do it. Place only
PRINCESS COUP - a very good effort last start in the Mackinnon, she is racing in great form, drops to a light weight with a top Kiwi jockey on board in Noel Harris. If she gets the trip she is a massive chance
MAHLER - winning times are far too slow to be competitive here. Come back next year.
TIPS - value allows backing them all PRINCESS COUP, BLUE MONDAY, MASTER O"REILLY , GALLIC
After the Cup, the punting gets extremely difficult. Race 8 is at the unusual distance of 1800m, it has many chances. MOLOTOV, FLASH TRICK, FIRE IN THE NIGHT, ECLAIR PASSION and the up and comer MORETON BAY. No tip here
Race 9 is down the straight. I couldn't work out the different veins of form and am staying out of it.
In the last event Tears I Cry drops back from the Crystal Mile where he led at a quick pace and fought on strongly, he is a long way down in class here. He has never finished further back than second in six goes at 1400m and has an excellent record on soft ground. He is drawn perfectly in gate 5 and will roll forward into a good spot. TIP - Back Tears I Cry.
TIPS SUMMARY
Race 1 no. 12 Viennesse
Race 2 no.2 Manna Miss
Race 5 no. 8 Listen Here
Race 7 23 Princess Coup, 2 Blue Monday, 11 Master O'Reilly, 4 Gallic
Race 10 no. 1 Tears I Cry
| 93 |
| Vote |
subscribe to this blog
Comment by Stanley
Comment by punters daily
Comment by Anonymous
MW
Comment by Brad Waters
Punters Daily
And He's a Victorian!!! - Victoria's Sporting stars
It's all well and good to put the boot in after the event MW (hiding under the anonymous banner, I see) but the fact is that the punt has all sorts of vaguaries, most of which did not go in our favour today. But one must pick one's chin up and go again on Thursday.
Put simply MW, if you don't like the tips, don't read. The intro says clearly that no-one is right all of the time and that is the beauty of the punt. In the Orble community people lay bare their thoughts all the time, those are mine and the choice is yours whether you read or not.
As for saving for next year, that shows your ignorance. A true punter always has a bank for punting only, mine took a hit today but remains healthy, after a very good Derby day, my bank is about level for the Carnival at the halfway point, which is way ahead of many people around town.