OAKS DAY PREVIEW
November 7th 2007 10:14
Ladies Day has fast become a day where not many Melburnians go to work either. When a race meeting draws 100,000 people on a work day, it is a brilliant job done by the marketing department. Being a punting racegoer rather than a social racegoer, I must say that the Oaks atmosphere, that of a 40 hectare nightclub, is not conducive to backing winners so I avoid it like the plague and actually work on Oaks Day. It has changed a lot since 1993 when I sat my VCE English exam and headed straight to the track after it on a cold, wet November Thursday and the crowd was no more than the average Saturday meeting.
After the hammering received on Cup Day, I am looking forward to getting back on to the right side of the ledger. The races aren't easy but the track is back in good condition after a couple of lovely spring days in Melbourne and one can bet with a bit more confidence than Tuesday. Something to remember here is that some of the horses engaged here are at the end of their tether and are tired of training and racing and looking for a spell. The emphasis here is to find the ones that are still improving rather than those that have peaked in condition and are on the way down.
The first is a mares event over 1100m down the straight course. Soleil faces the easiest field she has run against for ages but she has a poor record at the Flemington straight track. The inside draw is against here but she is a viable chance if the track allows. There is a strong form influence in this race through the race La Chasseuse won at Caulfield on the 20th of October. Out of that race came Zipanese, La Chasseuse, Mistake Creek, Soaressa, and Ask The Music. Of the meeting of all of these mares Zipanese meets these on far better weight terms, particularly La Chasseuse who Zipanese meets three kilos better for a three quarter of a length defeat. The outside draw should assist Zipanese. TIP - Zipanese Each Way
The second is a tough affair. The big field makes it very difficult, here are a heap of chances here. I think the form lines that will be to the fore centre around a race run at Caulfield also on October 20. It was won by The Wolverine at 40 to 1. Extend, Road to Athens , The Wolverine, Gallopin and Stedman all ran in the race and along with One Way or Another and Sunburnt Land are the main chances. One Way or Another has drawn gate 19 and will do it tough, Sunburnt Land has been held at his last 2 in town but is racing well in the bush. That leaves the Caulfield race, Gallopin is the one on the way up and meets all of the others better at the wights for being beaten a short half head. His two runs back have been very good, with a slight concern being gate 13. TIP - Back Gallopin each way
Race three is a pretty weak three year old fillies event over 1700m. This would have been a perfect race for Class Prevails but she went to the Oaks. Wrong move connections! I have no interest here.
The fourth is an exceedingly difficult filles race over 1200m. Gold Edition won the race last year under the set weights and penalties format. All of these fillies match up very evenly and luck in running will be the key. No bet here.
The greys race is a disgrace and should not be on any metropolitan race card. I refuse to bet in it on principle. Racegoers should remember that before parting with 45 bucks to enter the course to see such rubbish.
The Oaks is probably a bit fortunate to still have it's group one status, this year's field is handy without being brilliant. There are no Miss Finlands in this lot but it is very even and competitive. I have been on the Riva San bandwagon for a few weeks now since her impressive win in Adelaide. She beat Serious Speed impressively that day over a mile. She had three runs at a mile which didn't really suit here before her step up to 2000m where she was caught wide on the sweeping Flemington turn and only just nutted by Zarita who had a perfect run. A major factor in Saturday's result was the 2 kilo weight difference between Zarita and Riva San. I think those two will quinella the race again with the result going Riva San's way. TIP - Back Riva San
The seventh is an interesting race over 1800 metres. Miss Marielle may look like she has the job ahead giving weight away to the colts but she is winning much higher class races than these. Woodwin ran pretty well in the AAMI Vase behind Marching and Kibbutz and is the main danger. TIP - back Miss Marielle, with a saver on Woodwin
The eighth sees the brilliant gelding Lucky Secret return from a three month suspension after suffering a bleeding attack when winning the Monash Stakes in July. He is undefeated and a potential superstar. He is drawn the outside and should simply be too good. Let Go Thommo will run his usual honest race but with an inside draw and the steadier of 59kg. Miss Judgement has raced very honestly this campaign and drops to 53kg, she has also drawn an outside gate, she will lead them up and should hang on for a place. Lucky Secret will be no flash odds, so will back Miss Judgement to place.
The last is a difficult mile race, the big field of more than likely sixteen runners are very hard to sort out and in there is really no need to try. Let them run around without you and get a head start home.
TIP SUMMARY
Race 1 - 3 Zipanese Each Way
Race 2 - 9 Gallopin Each Way
Race 6 - 4 Riva San
Race 7 - 1 Miss Marielle
12 Woodwin
Race 8 - 7 Miss Judgement Place Only
Good Punting
After the hammering received on Cup Day, I am looking forward to getting back on to the right side of the ledger. The races aren't easy but the track is back in good condition after a couple of lovely spring days in Melbourne and one can bet with a bit more confidence than Tuesday. Something to remember here is that some of the horses engaged here are at the end of their tether and are tired of training and racing and looking for a spell. The emphasis here is to find the ones that are still improving rather than those that have peaked in condition and are on the way down.
The first is a mares event over 1100m down the straight course. Soleil faces the easiest field she has run against for ages but she has a poor record at the Flemington straight track. The inside draw is against here but she is a viable chance if the track allows. There is a strong form influence in this race through the race La Chasseuse won at Caulfield on the 20th of October. Out of that race came Zipanese, La Chasseuse, Mistake Creek, Soaressa, and Ask The Music. Of the meeting of all of these mares Zipanese meets these on far better weight terms, particularly La Chasseuse who Zipanese meets three kilos better for a three quarter of a length defeat. The outside draw should assist Zipanese. TIP - Zipanese Each Way
The second is a tough affair. The big field makes it very difficult, here are a heap of chances here. I think the form lines that will be to the fore centre around a race run at Caulfield also on October 20. It was won by The Wolverine at 40 to 1. Extend, Road to Athens , The Wolverine, Gallopin and Stedman all ran in the race and along with One Way or Another and Sunburnt Land are the main chances. One Way or Another has drawn gate 19 and will do it tough, Sunburnt Land has been held at his last 2 in town but is racing well in the bush. That leaves the Caulfield race, Gallopin is the one on the way up and meets all of the others better at the wights for being beaten a short half head. His two runs back have been very good, with a slight concern being gate 13. TIP - Back Gallopin each way
Race three is a pretty weak three year old fillies event over 1700m. This would have been a perfect race for Class Prevails but she went to the Oaks. Wrong move connections! I have no interest here.
The fourth is an exceedingly difficult filles race over 1200m. Gold Edition won the race last year under the set weights and penalties format. All of these fillies match up very evenly and luck in running will be the key. No bet here.
The greys race is a disgrace and should not be on any metropolitan race card. I refuse to bet in it on principle. Racegoers should remember that before parting with 45 bucks to enter the course to see such rubbish.
The Oaks is probably a bit fortunate to still have it's group one status, this year's field is handy without being brilliant. There are no Miss Finlands in this lot but it is very even and competitive. I have been on the Riva San bandwagon for a few weeks now since her impressive win in Adelaide. She beat Serious Speed impressively that day over a mile. She had three runs at a mile which didn't really suit here before her step up to 2000m where she was caught wide on the sweeping Flemington turn and only just nutted by Zarita who had a perfect run. A major factor in Saturday's result was the 2 kilo weight difference between Zarita and Riva San. I think those two will quinella the race again with the result going Riva San's way. TIP - Back Riva San
The seventh is an interesting race over 1800 metres. Miss Marielle may look like she has the job ahead giving weight away to the colts but she is winning much higher class races than these. Woodwin ran pretty well in the AAMI Vase behind Marching and Kibbutz and is the main danger. TIP - back Miss Marielle, with a saver on Woodwin
The eighth sees the brilliant gelding Lucky Secret return from a three month suspension after suffering a bleeding attack when winning the Monash Stakes in July. He is undefeated and a potential superstar. He is drawn the outside and should simply be too good. Let Go Thommo will run his usual honest race but with an inside draw and the steadier of 59kg. Miss Judgement has raced very honestly this campaign and drops to 53kg, she has also drawn an outside gate, she will lead them up and should hang on for a place. Lucky Secret will be no flash odds, so will back Miss Judgement to place.
The last is a difficult mile race, the big field of more than likely sixteen runners are very hard to sort out and in there is really no need to try. Let them run around without you and get a head start home.
TIP SUMMARY
Race 1 - 3 Zipanese Each Way
Race 2 - 9 Gallopin Each Way
Race 6 - 4 Riva San
Race 7 - 1 Miss Marielle
12 Woodwin
Race 8 - 7 Miss Judgement Place Only
Good Punting
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