VRC Derby Day preview
November 1st 2007 12:13
The first week of PuntersDaily has been profitable. On a level stakes basis a profit of 10.4% was attained. Growth of that magnitude would be applauded on the stock market. This coming week, that of the VRC Spring Carnival is, along with Easter, the most difficult for punters. There are so many formlines to line-up and the four days in quick succession is punishing on the serious punter's brain. Quite a few take time off to recharge the batteries after such an arduous week. A profit over the four days of the Carnival will be a big ask but one that can be achieved.
Derby Day kicks off proceedings on Saturday. I am well aware that there are Moonee Valley races on Friday night. I have been through the fields and they are terrible for a city meeting and will be watching on TV only and not having a wager. Therein lies the first secret to succeeding at the Carnival. DO NOT BET ON EVERY RACE!! It cannot be said often enough. Derby Day is fantastic for the punter but the other days are of a varying standard and must be separated into those to be bet on and those to watch only.
The first is at 10.30 and is worth getting organised early for. Exceedingly Good was very good on debut, overcoming a slow start to win nicely. Nato didn't muster early speed and was very green but finished well enough to suggest he has a future. Ballerina Girl is owned by the powerful Coolmore Stud, after the defeat of Dylan Thomas and the fatal injury to George Washington in America last weekend , they could do with a change of luck. She is a Danehill Dancer filly who is bred to go quick being out of a Vain mare. Reaan won very impressively over the 900m at Bendigo on debut, he is very well bred by Hussonet out of the very good mare Ribe. The rise in distance to the thousand metres can only be in his favour. One of my little punting theories is to back the Arab owned 2yos. The Shieks pour an amazing amount of money into racing all over the world and attempt to buy the best bred 2yos anywhere in the world. Good breeding generally means a good galloper and the Hussonet breed performed very well last season as 2yos. TIP - Back Reaan each way
The second is the Carbine Club Stakes for 3yos. This is a race that throws up an up and comer to be followed in the autumn. Horses like Saintly and Doncaster winner Over have won the Carbine Club in previous years. This year the race is a lottery. Consistent gallopers like Pit Lane meet promising horses with little experience like Blue Sky who ran very well behind Vandalo last start, Schilling, Electromotive and Rightfully Yours who were all very impressive last start winners. Motonari is racing very well and Zacroona who is a Zabeel gelding who won over 1100m on debut, rare for the Zabeel breed, his last start behind Vandalo was excellent. This race is a lottery, stay out.
The Saab Quality is the last chance for most of these to get into the Melbourne Cup field. Generally it can be a handy guide to Tuesday's race. Maybe Better won the race last year and ran 3rd in the Cup and Brew won the race in 2000 and won the Cup three days later. This year's field is not strong and the Cup winner won't be coming from it. Most of the also- rans from the Caulfield Cup are in it. Black Tom and Mandela are two them. They aren't going well. The Geelong Cup formline is to the fore with the first four placegetters engaged. Zavite and Desert Master meet The Fuzz a kilo better for their defeats by that horse but I think The Fuzz has their measure again here Zavite has drawn poorly in 13 and Desert Master was beaten too far to make use of a one kilo advantage. Cefalu has had seven goes at Flemington and never placed. I can't see him improving that record with a win. Sentire isn't good enough to win here. One that is improving is King of Ashford. The Coongy was run very slowly which gave him no hope, he got home nicely from the rear. His last run in this distance range was a very good effort behind Gallant Guru in last year's Sandown Classic at WFA, he is getting fit now. TIP - back King of Ashford and The Fuzz
The Wakeful is a raffle with so many horses on trial at the trip for the Oaks on Thursday. The Thousand Guineas form looks to be the strongest. Serious Speed, Extension of Time, Antarctic Miss, Riva San and Absolute Glam all ran well in the 1000 Guineas. Add to those Diana's Secret who was pipped on the post by the Derby fancy Kibbutz last start and it becomes very difficult to find the winner because of the evenness of the line-up. I marked Class Prevails as one to follow from the Valley last week but she has been put into the wrong race by connections. There is a 1700m race for 3yos on Oaks Day that she can win. Why go here?. I won't be betting here.
Race 5 is the Coolmore Stakes, a group 1 over 1200m. It sees the return of Weekend Hussler from his convincing Caulfield Guineas win. I must say that if I was his owner he would be enjoying a well earned rest. However a three hundred grand first prize will always be tempting. He should win but at the quoted $1.50, I won't be backing him. Nor will I be taking him on either. I will probably take a trifecta with Weekend Hussler to win with Scenic Blast, Royal Asscher, Shrewd Rhythm and Bel Mer to fill the placings.
The Mackinnon is a nightmare race for punters. Two questions need to be asked such as how many horses are over the top and have had enough this time in? How many are not going to be knocked about in order to be saved for Tuesday? We'll start by eliminating the ones with no hope. Railings is going terribly. Tawqeet is improving but has a terrible Flemington record failing to place in four goes. Maybe Better was injured in the Caulfield Cup and couldn't possibly win here. Scenic Shot couldn't reproduce his fluke second in the Turnbull, let alone win the race. Captious is a welter horse. Annenkov has trained off. Sirmione just doesn't win and Pillar of Hercules would need to improve too much. This leaves Zipping, Douro Valley and Miss Finland not sure if they are going to be going full tilt to win. Based on this theory it leaves Haradasun, Princess Coup and Devil Moon. My fingers are still stinging from Haradasun last week. He was trained for the Cox Plate. You can include him in a win bet because he is capable of winning but I won't be. This leaves the two mares Princess Coup who has found some good form. Her history says she holds form once she strikes it and I think she may improve from her Caulfield Cup run. Devil Moon ran pretty well in the Cox Plate. She looks to be the only natural pace in the race and may get things her own way in front. TIP - Back Princess Coup and Devil Moon each way, the value will be there.
The VRC Derby looks to have been well covered by the bookies. The top 4 in the market Marching, Villain, Kibbutz and Littorio are the chances. Put the pen through those that came through the Geelong Classic (formerly the Derby trial). That form doesn't stand up in the Derby these days. This leaves the traditional formlines, the Norman Robinson in which Littorio and Villain ran in and the AAMI Vase which Marching won and Kibbutz ran second. Villain's huge finish at Flemington two starts back caught the eye of many but the prevailing track bias may have taken the gloss off his win somewhat. Also the fact that the placegetters ran down the track at their next start would not have helped. Littorio is also a cause for concern at the only placing he has run this time in was first up in a field of six at Sandown. He is definitely one follow at his next preparation. He may win the Derby but I am not sure he is good enough...yet. This leaves the Vase form. Marching won it impressively sitting handy to a reasonable pace in a time only .2 of a second slower thn the Cox Plate time, not bad going for a bunch of horses that have just turned three. Kibbutz charged home late, he improves every run and cannot be left out TIP - To be safe back both Marching and Kibbutz
The Myer Classic is a group 1 weight for age race for mares. The strange conditions suit Divine Madonna down to the ground, her best distance (1600m), a track she always races well at and a wide draw which will ensure she will be snagged back to last to save her for the brilliant turn of foot she was unable to show in the Cox Plate. Place chances are Brom Felinity who will find this more suitable than the Yalumba, Like it Is who has come back very well, Bellini Rose who always races well at Flemington and has drawn a good gate and Translate who ran on very well last start at Caulfield. TIP - back Bellini Rose for the place
The Salinger has lost it's Group 1 status this year, it's a bit rough but there is a weight for age sprint later in the carnival that has been given Group 1 status. The track is of the most importance in straight racing. There is no sure way of knowing which side will be superior. From memory in previous years the inside has been better Derby day and the outside takes over as the carnival progresses. Also if the forecast rain comes, no race will be affected more than this one. Tesbury Jack needs a good surface at worst to perform, on a dead track he goes from a favourite to having no hope. Undue was ordinary last time at Caulfield but can improve sharply. Stanzout is going very well now and gets his best distance here. The inside must be the better side for him and Typhoon Zed as they are drawn in the two inside gates and are stuck on the fence. Shadoways hasn't won for over a year and has won three times out of his five wins first up but he is vey consistent and rates at least a place chance. Swick is a first up specialist that finds trouble regularly but is definitely good enough to win. Stickpin was noted for his run last week after being run off his feet early and finding trouble before flashing home, he is yet to place at Flemington but is going very well and usually takes a couple of runs to find his best, it may appear in this race. I'm not sure the mares are up to winning this. TIP - win Tesbury Jack but only on a good rated track, Stickpin each way
The last on a long day is a very even affair. I think there are quite a few chances, Royal Ida, Valedictum, Rockford Bay (only if the track is good), Amerryking, Roman Squire,King Johannes and Count to Zero. I couldn't split all of these gallopers. I think I will take my bat and ball and go home for a rest to prepare for Tuesday.
Good Punting
Derby Day kicks off proceedings on Saturday. I am well aware that there are Moonee Valley races on Friday night. I have been through the fields and they are terrible for a city meeting and will be watching on TV only and not having a wager. Therein lies the first secret to succeeding at the Carnival. DO NOT BET ON EVERY RACE!! It cannot be said often enough. Derby Day is fantastic for the punter but the other days are of a varying standard and must be separated into those to be bet on and those to watch only.
The first is at 10.30 and is worth getting organised early for. Exceedingly Good was very good on debut, overcoming a slow start to win nicely. Nato didn't muster early speed and was very green but finished well enough to suggest he has a future. Ballerina Girl is owned by the powerful Coolmore Stud, after the defeat of Dylan Thomas and the fatal injury to George Washington in America last weekend , they could do with a change of luck. She is a Danehill Dancer filly who is bred to go quick being out of a Vain mare. Reaan won very impressively over the 900m at Bendigo on debut, he is very well bred by Hussonet out of the very good mare Ribe. The rise in distance to the thousand metres can only be in his favour. One of my little punting theories is to back the Arab owned 2yos. The Shieks pour an amazing amount of money into racing all over the world and attempt to buy the best bred 2yos anywhere in the world. Good breeding generally means a good galloper and the Hussonet breed performed very well last season as 2yos. TIP - Back Reaan each way
The second is the Carbine Club Stakes for 3yos. This is a race that throws up an up and comer to be followed in the autumn. Horses like Saintly and Doncaster winner Over have won the Carbine Club in previous years. This year the race is a lottery. Consistent gallopers like Pit Lane meet promising horses with little experience like Blue Sky who ran very well behind Vandalo last start, Schilling, Electromotive and Rightfully Yours who were all very impressive last start winners. Motonari is racing very well and Zacroona who is a Zabeel gelding who won over 1100m on debut, rare for the Zabeel breed, his last start behind Vandalo was excellent. This race is a lottery, stay out.
The Saab Quality is the last chance for most of these to get into the Melbourne Cup field. Generally it can be a handy guide to Tuesday's race. Maybe Better won the race last year and ran 3rd in the Cup and Brew won the race in 2000 and won the Cup three days later. This year's field is not strong and the Cup winner won't be coming from it. Most of the also- rans from the Caulfield Cup are in it. Black Tom and Mandela are two them. They aren't going well. The Geelong Cup formline is to the fore with the first four placegetters engaged. Zavite and Desert Master meet The Fuzz a kilo better for their defeats by that horse but I think The Fuzz has their measure again here Zavite has drawn poorly in 13 and Desert Master was beaten too far to make use of a one kilo advantage. Cefalu has had seven goes at Flemington and never placed. I can't see him improving that record with a win. Sentire isn't good enough to win here. One that is improving is King of Ashford. The Coongy was run very slowly which gave him no hope, he got home nicely from the rear. His last run in this distance range was a very good effort behind Gallant Guru in last year's Sandown Classic at WFA, he is getting fit now. TIP - back King of Ashford and The Fuzz
The Wakeful is a raffle with so many horses on trial at the trip for the Oaks on Thursday. The Thousand Guineas form looks to be the strongest. Serious Speed, Extension of Time, Antarctic Miss, Riva San and Absolute Glam all ran well in the 1000 Guineas. Add to those Diana's Secret who was pipped on the post by the Derby fancy Kibbutz last start and it becomes very difficult to find the winner because of the evenness of the line-up. I marked Class Prevails as one to follow from the Valley last week but she has been put into the wrong race by connections. There is a 1700m race for 3yos on Oaks Day that she can win. Why go here?. I won't be betting here.
Race 5 is the Coolmore Stakes, a group 1 over 1200m. It sees the return of Weekend Hussler from his convincing Caulfield Guineas win. I must say that if I was his owner he would be enjoying a well earned rest. However a three hundred grand first prize will always be tempting. He should win but at the quoted $1.50, I won't be backing him. Nor will I be taking him on either. I will probably take a trifecta with Weekend Hussler to win with Scenic Blast, Royal Asscher, Shrewd Rhythm and Bel Mer to fill the placings.
The Mackinnon is a nightmare race for punters. Two questions need to be asked such as how many horses are over the top and have had enough this time in? How many are not going to be knocked about in order to be saved for Tuesday? We'll start by eliminating the ones with no hope. Railings is going terribly. Tawqeet is improving but has a terrible Flemington record failing to place in four goes. Maybe Better was injured in the Caulfield Cup and couldn't possibly win here. Scenic Shot couldn't reproduce his fluke second in the Turnbull, let alone win the race. Captious is a welter horse. Annenkov has trained off. Sirmione just doesn't win and Pillar of Hercules would need to improve too much. This leaves Zipping, Douro Valley and Miss Finland not sure if they are going to be going full tilt to win. Based on this theory it leaves Haradasun, Princess Coup and Devil Moon. My fingers are still stinging from Haradasun last week. He was trained for the Cox Plate. You can include him in a win bet because he is capable of winning but I won't be. This leaves the two mares Princess Coup who has found some good form. Her history says she holds form once she strikes it and I think she may improve from her Caulfield Cup run. Devil Moon ran pretty well in the Cox Plate. She looks to be the only natural pace in the race and may get things her own way in front. TIP - Back Princess Coup and Devil Moon each way, the value will be there.
The VRC Derby looks to have been well covered by the bookies. The top 4 in the market Marching, Villain, Kibbutz and Littorio are the chances. Put the pen through those that came through the Geelong Classic (formerly the Derby trial). That form doesn't stand up in the Derby these days. This leaves the traditional formlines, the Norman Robinson in which Littorio and Villain ran in and the AAMI Vase which Marching won and Kibbutz ran second. Villain's huge finish at Flemington two starts back caught the eye of many but the prevailing track bias may have taken the gloss off his win somewhat. Also the fact that the placegetters ran down the track at their next start would not have helped. Littorio is also a cause for concern at the only placing he has run this time in was first up in a field of six at Sandown. He is definitely one follow at his next preparation. He may win the Derby but I am not sure he is good enough...yet. This leaves the Vase form. Marching won it impressively sitting handy to a reasonable pace in a time only .2 of a second slower thn the Cox Plate time, not bad going for a bunch of horses that have just turned three. Kibbutz charged home late, he improves every run and cannot be left out TIP - To be safe back both Marching and Kibbutz
The Myer Classic is a group 1 weight for age race for mares. The strange conditions suit Divine Madonna down to the ground, her best distance (1600m), a track she always races well at and a wide draw which will ensure she will be snagged back to last to save her for the brilliant turn of foot she was unable to show in the Cox Plate. Place chances are Brom Felinity who will find this more suitable than the Yalumba, Like it Is who has come back very well, Bellini Rose who always races well at Flemington and has drawn a good gate and Translate who ran on very well last start at Caulfield. TIP - back Bellini Rose for the place
The Salinger has lost it's Group 1 status this year, it's a bit rough but there is a weight for age sprint later in the carnival that has been given Group 1 status. The track is of the most importance in straight racing. There is no sure way of knowing which side will be superior. From memory in previous years the inside has been better Derby day and the outside takes over as the carnival progresses. Also if the forecast rain comes, no race will be affected more than this one. Tesbury Jack needs a good surface at worst to perform, on a dead track he goes from a favourite to having no hope. Undue was ordinary last time at Caulfield but can improve sharply. Stanzout is going very well now and gets his best distance here. The inside must be the better side for him and Typhoon Zed as they are drawn in the two inside gates and are stuck on the fence. Shadoways hasn't won for over a year and has won three times out of his five wins first up but he is vey consistent and rates at least a place chance. Swick is a first up specialist that finds trouble regularly but is definitely good enough to win. Stickpin was noted for his run last week after being run off his feet early and finding trouble before flashing home, he is yet to place at Flemington but is going very well and usually takes a couple of runs to find his best, it may appear in this race. I'm not sure the mares are up to winning this. TIP - win Tesbury Jack but only on a good rated track, Stickpin each way
The last on a long day is a very even affair. I think there are quite a few chances, Royal Ida, Valedictum, Rockford Bay (only if the track is good), Amerryking, Roman Squire,King Johannes and Count to Zero. I couldn't split all of these gallopers. I think I will take my bat and ball and go home for a rest to prepare for Tuesday.
Good Punting
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