Why David Hayes?
November 26th 2007 11:29
Werribee stage a VRC meeting on Wednesday. With fine weather predicted for Melbourne for the next couple of days, there is no excuse for the track to be any worse than good.
The are only two picks for the Werribee meeting, the first is in race one. Number 7 , Salerne is a filly by King Charlemagne trained by Doug Harrison. Her form reads very well for this. She ran on very strongly behind Bulletin on debut defeating the next-start winner Point of Time. Last start at Werribee on cup day, she was ridden closer to the pace by Craig Williams and managed to hold off two next start winners, Star Studded and the recent city winner Joyeuse. She is improving at every start and can go on with it here.
Race 5 sees Soreadyforspring going around over 1415 metres. Since arriving in Australia from England, he has put in two excellent runs, the latest being behind Spectacular Saint on Emirates Stakes day, he couldn't go the early pace and worked home vey nicely. His last English run saw a win over 1400 metres carrying 59.5 kilos in a higher class (85) event than this and must beat this field to be taken seriously in Australia.
The main concern for punters is the form of his trainer David Hayes. Although Hayes is leading the trainers Premiership in Melbourne and Adelaide, Hayes is actually having a lean season so far.
His win percentage has dropped from a barely acceptable 14.3% in 2005/2006 to a very average 11.2% so far in season 2007/2008. This decline is despite Hayes being a trainer for all of the major breeders in Australia. Coolmore, Arrowfield and Darley studs all have horses with David Hayes as does Shiek Hamdan bin Rashid al Maktoum from Dubai who is one of the world's great thoroughbred owners and breeders.
With the support of these breeders Hayes cannot, unlike many of his contemparies, argue that he does not have access to well-bred horses from large owners. Part of the reason for Hayes' decline can be traced back to his past two crops of two year olds. Based on Virtualformguide and Expertform statistics the rate of Hayes two year old winners winning again in their three year old season has dropped markedly.
In 2005/2006 Hayes had 46 individual 2 year old winners. 23 of those have won again in their three year old season and beyond, including the once mighty Miss Finland who swept all before her in her 3 year old season before struggling in open class in the first half of this season. Last season Hayes had 45 individual two year old winners. Only six have won in their three year old season. This drop in three year old winners has hurt the punters' bottom line immeasurably.
Hayes must show that he is a top trainer of all ages of horse, not just blitz the two year old races. David Hayes simply wins premierships because of his weight of numbers. His main rival Lee Freedman is nearly doubling Hayes' strike rate this season, winning 20.3% of races contested. Mick Price has a 2007/2008 strike rate of 22.2% and Danny O'Brien a winning rate of 17.6% this season. Trainers like these are much better friends of a punter than David Hayes has been recently.
The lesson is bigger is not necessarily better in racing.
The are only two picks for the Werribee meeting, the first is in race one. Number 7 , Salerne is a filly by King Charlemagne trained by Doug Harrison. Her form reads very well for this. She ran on very strongly behind Bulletin on debut defeating the next-start winner Point of Time. Last start at Werribee on cup day, she was ridden closer to the pace by Craig Williams and managed to hold off two next start winners, Star Studded and the recent city winner Joyeuse. She is improving at every start and can go on with it here.
Race 5 sees Soreadyforspring going around over 1415 metres. Since arriving in Australia from England, he has put in two excellent runs, the latest being behind Spectacular Saint on Emirates Stakes day, he couldn't go the early pace and worked home vey nicely. His last English run saw a win over 1400 metres carrying 59.5 kilos in a higher class (85) event than this and must beat this field to be taken seriously in Australia.
The main concern for punters is the form of his trainer David Hayes. Although Hayes is leading the trainers Premiership in Melbourne and Adelaide, Hayes is actually having a lean season so far.
His win percentage has dropped from a barely acceptable 14.3% in 2005/2006 to a very average 11.2% so far in season 2007/2008. This decline is despite Hayes being a trainer for all of the major breeders in Australia. Coolmore, Arrowfield and Darley studs all have horses with David Hayes as does Shiek Hamdan bin Rashid al Maktoum from Dubai who is one of the world's great thoroughbred owners and breeders.
With the support of these breeders Hayes cannot, unlike many of his contemparies, argue that he does not have access to well-bred horses from large owners. Part of the reason for Hayes' decline can be traced back to his past two crops of two year olds. Based on Virtualformguide and Expertform statistics the rate of Hayes two year old winners winning again in their three year old season has dropped markedly.
In 2005/2006 Hayes had 46 individual 2 year old winners. 23 of those have won again in their three year old season and beyond, including the once mighty Miss Finland who swept all before her in her 3 year old season before struggling in open class in the first half of this season. Last season Hayes had 45 individual two year old winners. Only six have won in their three year old season. This drop in three year old winners has hurt the punters' bottom line immeasurably.
Hayes must show that he is a top trainer of all ages of horse, not just blitz the two year old races. David Hayes simply wins premierships because of his weight of numbers. His main rival Lee Freedman is nearly doubling Hayes' strike rate this season, winning 20.3% of races contested. Mick Price has a 2007/2008 strike rate of 22.2% and Danny O'Brien a winning rate of 17.6% this season. Trainers like these are much better friends of a punter than David Hayes has been recently.
The lesson is bigger is not necessarily better in racing.
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